Checking in on 2008 Predictions for 2009

In our January/February 2009 issue of the Parthenon Post, we wrote about predictions for our industry in 2009. Our two main predictions proved valid: First, magazine page counts continued to decline or remained flat (flat became the new “up”). And, second, companies continued to place resources into content marketing (web content, case studies, blogs, webinars, newsletters, e-newsletters, custom magazines, etc.).

But what about the predictions made by other leading marketers? Our article included links to predictions made by industry experts. In most cases, their predictions were pretty dismal and unfortunately, valid. Here are a few highlights:

1. Both eMarketer and AdWeek predicted steep declines in traditional print advertising, especially in newspapers. (In hindsight – unfortunately for newspapers – this was probably a pretty easy prediction to make.) The Newspaper Association of America recently reported that newspaper advertising revenues fell 28.5% in the first three quarters of 2009, from about $27.8 billion to $19.9 billion. (Online revenues accounted for 10% of the 19.9 billion.)

2. Website Magazine predicted a continual and substantial increase in the use of social media tools as more and more Americans were laid-off and in need of a way to reactivate their social network. According to eMarketer, active Twitter users increased from 6 million in 2008 to 18 million in 2009 (as of September 2009). And LinkedIn now has 53 million members in over 200 countries.

3. Numerous Junta42 contributors predicted that B2C use of Twitter would increase. A November 2009 eMarketer report found that 52% of businesses are using Twitter as part of their social media strategy. In 2008, Twitter was not even a survey option.

Truthfully, most of the articles we cited were pretty conservative when making their predictions for 2009. The one organization that really stretched was ReadWriteWeb.com, and accordingly, they had a few more misses than the other guys. They predicted Facebook would decline (it grew), Twitter would be acquired (it was not), Yahoo would be acquired by someone other than Microsoft (it did enter into an agreement with Microsoft, but was not sold) and that there would be a large backlash against Google (even a $100 million ad campaign for Bing barely dented Google’s dominance).

So what does 2010 hold for custom publishing, content marketing, web development and social media? We are working on our predictions (keep your eyes on our blog for an update). So, until then, enjoy a few predictions from other leaders:

Junta42′s Top 100 Predictions for 2010
Seven Predictions from eMarketers CEO
Folio’s list of 115 Predictions for Magazines and Media
10 Ways Social Media Will Change in 2010
And just for fun, ReadWriteWeb’s take on the top 10 failures of 2009